Forecasting & Trending: Seeing Around Corners
Project Controls Master Series (PC-010)
In capital projects, good project controls don’t just track the past — they help leaders see the future. That’s where forecasting and trending come in.
At Albers Management, we’ve seen firsthand how the ability to anticipate issues before they materialize is often the dividing line between a project that stays on track and one that spirals into delays and overruns.
Why Forecasting & Trending Matter
Traditional reporting is backward-looking. It tells you what has already happened. That’s important, but it’s not enough.
Forecasting and trending shift the focus to “what’s next.” By analyzing cost, schedule, and risk data dynamically, we can identify:
Early signs of schedule slippage
Cash flow peaks and bottlenecks
Cost overruns in the making
Risks that are gaining momentum
Opportunities for acceleration or savings
In other words, forecasting and trending give executives the foresight to act early rather than react late.
Key Elements of Forecasting
1. Cost Forecasting
Cost forecasting integrates actual spend, commitments, and performance data to predict the final cost at completion. Tools like Earned Value Management (EVM) provide objective performance metrics.
2. Schedule Forecasting
We look at progress rates, productivity factors, and resource allocation to predict whether milestones will be met. Monte Carlo simulations and what-if modeling add probability-based foresight.
3. Risk Forecasting
We don’t just log risks — we model their potential impact and trend their probability over time. That way, a risk that’s growing in likelihood doesn’t catch leadership by surprise.
Trending: The Pulse of a Project
Where forecasting predicts outcomes, trending shows momentum.
By trending data over time, we uncover patterns that static reports miss:
Are costs creeping upward month over month?
Is schedule performance consistently under target?
Are risk events being closed out, or are they accumulating?
Trends provide context for forecasts. A single bad month could be noise. A four-month trend is a signal.
How Forecasting & Trending Scale with Project Complexity
| Project Type | Forecasting & Trending Approach |
|---|---|
| Tenant Improvement | Basic cash flow forecasts, milestone tracking, light trend monitoring |
| Healthcare Renovation | Detailed cost/schedule forecasting, risk trending, resource productivity analysis |
| Greenfield Manufacturing Facility | Integrated forecasting with EVM, probabilistic schedule models, multi-variable trend analysis |
| Hyperscale Data Center Program | Enterprise forecasting platforms, scenario modeling, portfolio-level trend dashboards |
Common Pitfalls We’ve Seen
| Pitfall | Fix |
|---|---|
| Forecasts based only on intuition | Base forecasts on integrated cost, schedule, and risk data |
| Static forecasts that never update | Use rolling-wave updates tied to performance data |
| Overemphasis on single-point estimates | Apply ranges and probabilities to reflect uncertainty |
| Ignoring small but persistent trends | Treat multi-period patterns as signals, not noise |
Our Perspective: Forecasting Builds Confidence
At the end of the day, forecasting and trending aren’t about perfect predictions. They’re about equipping leaders with the foresight to act intelligently, even when uncertainty is high.
When executives can “see around corners,” projects stop being reactive and start being resilient. That’s what forecasting and trending deliver.
Next-Level Insights Coming Soon
We’re expanding this short blog into a full-length guide covering strategic forecasting, risk modeling, and cost governance in complex capital projects.
Get Notified When It DropsWant a deeper, behind-the-scenes perspective?
Read the personal blog version by David Gray:
What Are Project Controls? – DavidGrayProjects.com
About the Author
David Gray is a principal at Albers Management and a national expert in capital program delivery. With experience managing over $20B in complex infrastructure and healthcare projects, he leads with strategy, structure, and service.
Outside of Albers, David shares long-form insights and behind-the-scenes lessons at DavidGrayProjects.com, where he writes about project strategy, leadership, and the future of infrastructure.
Visit DavidGrayProjects.com →